The Media’s Delegate Math is Wrong

April 7, 2012

 

 

A memo detailing flawed delegate counts from John Yob, delegate strategist, (Santorum campaign) to Mike Biundo, campaign manager:

 

The Media’s Delegate Math is Wrong.

 

There are a couple of fundamental flaws with the delegate counts that the media keeps that reveals that this race is much closer than they report:

 

1) Florida, Arizona, and quite possibly Puerto Rico will be proportional rather than Winner Take All. They broke RNC rules by going winner take all before the window and therefore RNC Members and/or the convention will enforce the rules and make the delegations proportional.  This will reduce Romney’s delegate total substantially and increase the other three candidates’ respective delegate totals.

 

2) National Convention Delegates are elected at County, District, and State conventions rather than by the initial beauty contests in many states.   For example, in Washington State Romney was allocated 25 delegates, Paul 8 delegates, Santorum 7 delegates, and Gingrich 0 delegates.   The Santorum and Paul campaigns are working together in Washington State and the result will be more delegates for Santorum and Paul and a dramatic decrease in delegates for Romney. Santorum will also over perform in most other states that use this process and Romney will underperform.

 

3) Unbound delegates – The media continues to put unbound delegates in their counts in the territories and other states. These folks can change their mind, or have yet to make up their mind, and should not be counted as if they are bound.

 

The REAL Count

 

Our current internal count that takes into account ongoing county, district, and state conventions is as follows:

 

Romney – 571

Santorum – 342

Newt – 158

Paul – 91

 

Texas is Going Winner Take All

 

The state of Texas is in the process of announcing that they are going to go Winner Take All rather than proportional.  This will have a dramatic impact on the delegate projections, tighten the race after Santorum wins Texas, and significantly hinder Romney’s capacity to ever get 1144 delegates because he will not get his proportion of the state.  Continue reading…………

 

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